Add time:07/18/2019         Source:sciencedirect.com

Achieving the goals of emissions intensity reduction and energy mix transition along with steady economic growth is a hot topic in China. This paper constructs an economic growth model under emissions reduction control. Using the PLS regression technique, the potential economic growth rates are calculated as 6.64% and 5.35% in 2020 and 2030, respectively. Moreover, employing the Markov chain method and multi-objective optimisation model, we also investigate the evolution trends and the optimisation modes of energy mix in different scenarios. The results show the proportions of clean energy cannot meet the policy targets in the BAU scenario. However, the goal of energy mix can be realized in the “3E” scenario, and a more low-carbon energy consumption structure will be promoted in 2020 and 2030. Furthermore, our results suggest that the Chinese government needs to transform the extensive traditional economic development pattern and strive to achieve the “3E” coordinated development pattern.

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